Publications

Much of the research quantifying volume and spread of online misinformation measures the construct at the source level, identifying a set of specific unreliable domains that account for a relatively small share of news consumption. This source-level dichotomy obscures the potential for users to repurpose factually true information from reliable sources to advance misleading narratives. We demonstrate this potentially far more prevalent form of misinformation by identifying articles from reliable sources that are frequently co-shared with (shared by users who also shared) "fake" news on social media, and concurrently extracting narratives present in fake news content and claims fact-checked as false. Specifically in this study, we use Twitter/X data from May 2018 to November 2021 matched to a U.S. voter file. We find that narratives present in misinformation content are significantly more likely to occur in co-shared articles than in articles from the same reliable sources that are not co-shared, consistent with users using information from mainstream sources to enhance the credibility and reach of potentially misleading claims.

As they evolve, social networks tend to form transitive triads more often than random chance and structural constraints would suggest. However, the mechanisms by which triads in these networks become transitive are largely unexplored. We leverage a unique combination of data and methods to demonstrate a causal link between amplification and triad transitivity in a directed social network. Additionally, we develop the concept of the “attention broker,” an extension of the previously theorized tertius iungens (or “third who joins”). We use an innovative technique to identify time-bounded Twitter/X following events, and then use difference-in-differences to show that attention brokers cause triad transitivity by amplifying content. Attention brokers intervene in the evolution of any sociotechnical system where individuals can amplify content while referencing its originator.

Information on social media is characterized by networked curation processes in which users select other users from whom to receive information, and those users in turn share information that promotes their identities and interests. We argue this allows for partisan “curation bubbles” of users who share and consume content with consistent appeal drawn from a variety of sources. Yet, research concerning the extent of filter bubbles, echo chambers, or other forms of politically segregated information consumption typically conceptualizes information’s partisan valence at the source level as opposed to the story level. This can lead domain-level measures of audience partisanship to mischaracterize the partisan appeal of sources’ constituent stories—especially for sources estimated to be more moderate. Accounting for networked curation aligns theory and measurement of political information consumption on social media.

Social media play a pivotal role in disseminating web content, particularly during elections, yet our understanding of the association between demographic factors and political discourse online remains limited. Here, we introduce a unique dataset, DomainDemo, linking domains shared on Twitter (X) with the demographic characteristics of associated users, including age, gender, race, political affiliation, and geolocation, from 2011 to 2022. This new resource was derived from a panel of over 1.5 million Twitter users matched against their U.S. voter registration records, facilitating a better understanding of a decade of information flows on one of the most prominent social media platforms and trends in political and public discourse among registered U.S. voters from different sociodemographic groups. By aggregating user demographic information onto the domains, we derive five metrics that provide critical insights into over 129,000 websites. In particular, the localness and partisan audience metrics quantify the domains’ geographical reach and ideological orientation, respectively. These metrics show substantial agreement with existing classifications, suggesting the effectiveness and reliability of DomainDemo’s approach.

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Importance  Efforts to understand the complex association between social media use and mental health have focused on depression, with little investigation of other forms of negative affect, such as irritability and anxiety.

Objective  To characterize the association between self-reported use of individual social media platforms and irritability among US adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants  This survey study analyzed data from 2 waves of the COVID States Project, a nonprobability web-based survey conducted between November 2, 2023, and January 8, 2024, and applied multiple linear regression models to estimate associations with irritability. Survey respondents were aged 18 years and older.

Exposure  Self-reported social media use.

Main Outcomes and Measures  The primary outcome was score on the Brief Irritability Test (range, 5-30), with higher scores indicating greater irritability.

Results  Across the 2 survey waves, there were 42 597 unique participants, with mean (SD) age 46.0 (17.0) years; 24 919 (58.5%) identified as women, 17 222 (40.4%) as men, and 456 (1.1%) as nonbinary. In the full sample, 1216 (2.9%) identified as Asian American, 5939 (13.9%) as Black, 5322 (12.5%) as Hispanic, 624 (1.5%) as Native American, 515 (1.2%) as Pacific Islander, 28 354 (66.6%) as White, and 627 (1.5%) as other (ie, selecting the other option prompted the opportunity to provide a free-text self-description). In total, 33 325 (78.2%) of the survey respondents reported daily use of at least 1 social media platform, including 6037 (14.2%) using once a day, 16 678 (39.2%) using multiple times a day, and 10 610 (24.9%) using most of the day. Frequent use of social media was associated with significantly greater irritability in univariate regression models (for more than once a day vs never, 1.43 points [95% CI, 1.22-1.63 points]; for most of the day vs never, 3.37 points [95% CI, 3.15-3.60 points]) and adjusted models (for more than once a day, 0.38 points [95% CI, 0.18-0.58 points]; for most of the day, 1.55 points [95% CI, 1.32-1.78 points]). These associations persisted after incorporating measures of political engagement.

Conclusions and Relevance  In this survey study of 42 597 US adults, irritability represented another correlate of social media use that merits further characterization, in light of known associations with depression and suicidality.

Social media creates the possibility for rapid, viral spread of content, but how many posts actually reach millions? And is misinformation special in how it propagates? We answer these questions by analyzing the virality of and exposure to information on Facebook during the U.S. 2020 presidential election. We examine the diffusion trees of the approximately 1 B posts that were re-shared at least once by U.S.-based adults from July 1, 2020, to February 1, 2021. We differentiate misinformation from non-misinformation posts to show that (1) misinformation diffused more slowly, relying on a small number of active users that spread misinformation via long chains of peer-to-peer diffusion that reached millions; non-misinformation spread primarily through one-to-many affordances (mainly, Pages); (2) the relative importance of peer-to-peer spread for misinformation was likely due to an enforcement gap in content moderation policies designed to target mostly Pages and Groups; and (3) periods of aggressive content moderation proximate to the election coincide with dramatic drops in the spread and reach of misinformation and (to a lesser extent) political content.

Importance  Identifying and tracking new infections during an emerging pandemic is crucial to design and deploy interventions to protect populations and mitigate the pandemic’s effects, yet it remains a challenging task.

Objective  To characterize the ability of nonprobability online surveys to longitudinally estimate the number of COVID-19 infections in the population both in the presence and absence of institutionalized testing.

Design, Setting, and Participants  Internet-based online nonprobability surveys were conducted among residents aged 18 years or older across 50 US states and the District of Columbia, using the PureSpectrum survey vendor, approximately every 6 weeks between June 1, 2020, and January 31, 2023, for a multiuniversity consortium—the COVID States Project. Surveys collected information on COVID-19 infections with representative state-level quotas applied to balance age, sex, race and ethnicity, and geographic distribution.

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Importance Identifying and tracking new infections during an emerging pandemic is crucial to design and deploy interventions to protect populations and mitigate its effects, yet it remains a challenging task.

Objective To characterize the ability of non-probability online surveys to longitudinally estimate the number of COVID-19 infections in the population both in the presence and absence of institutionalized testing.

Design Internet-based non-probability surveys were conducted, using the PureSpectrum survey vendor, approximately every 6 weeks between April 2020 and January 2023. They collected information on COVID-19 infections with representative state-level quotas applied to balance age, gender, race and ethnicity, and geographic distribution. Data from this survey were compared to institutional case counts collected by Johns Hopkins University and wastewater surveillance data for SARS-CoV-2 from Biobot Analytics.

Setting Population-based online non-probability survey conducted for a multi-university consortium —the Covid States Project.

Participants Residents of age 18+ across 50 US states and the District of Columbia in the US.

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This study aimed to characterize the prevalence of irritability among U.S. adults, and the extent to which it co-occurs with major depressive and anxious symptoms. A non-probability internet survey of individuals 18 and older in 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia was conducted between November 2, 2023, and January 8, 2024. Regression models with survey weighting were used to examine associations between the Brief Irritability Test (BITe5) and sociodemographic and clinical features. The survey cohort included 42,739 individuals, mean age 46.0 (SD 17.0) years; 25,001 (58.5%) identified as women, 17,281 (40.4%) as men, and 457 (1.1%) as nonbinary. A total of 1218(2.8%) identified as Asian American, 5971 (14.0%) as Black, 5348 (12.5%) as Hispanic, 1775 (4.2%) as another race, and 28,427 (66.5%) as white. Mean irritability score was 13.6 (SD 5.6) on a scale from 5 to 30. In linear regression models, irritability was greater among respondents who were female, younger, had lower levels of education, and lower household income. Greater irritability was associated with likelihood of thoughts of suicide in logistic regression models adjusted for sociodemographic features (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.22–1.24). Among 1979 individuals without thoughts of suicide on the initial survey assessed for such thoughts on a subsequent survey, greater irritability was also associated with greater likelihood of thoughts of suicide being present (adjusted OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.12–1.23). The prevalence of irritability and its association with thoughts of suicide suggests the need to better understand its implications among adults outside of acute mood episodes.

The social media platforms of the twenty-first century have an enormous role in regulating speech in the USA and worldwide¹. However, there has been little research on platform-wide interventions on speech^2,3. Here we evaluate the effect of the decision by Twitter to suddenly deplatform 70,000 misinformation traffickers in response to the violence at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 (a series of events commonly known as and referred to here as ‘January 6th’). Using a panel of more than 500,000 active Twitter users^4,5 and natural experimental designs^6,7, we evaluate the effects of this intervention on the circulation of misinformation on Twitter. We show that the intervention reduced circulation of misinformation by the deplatformed users as well as by those who followed the deplatformed users, though we cannot identify the magnitude of the causal estimates owing to the co-occurrence of the deplatforming intervention with the events surrounding January 6th. We also find that many of the misinformation traffickers who were not deplatformed left Twitter following the intervention. The results inform the historical record surrounding the insurrection, a momentous event in US history, and indicate the capacity of social media platforms to control the circulation of misinformation, and more generally to regulate public discourse.